What is the potential for phone numbers to become obsolete for communication?

[muskanhossain]

The potential for phone numbers to become obsolete for communication is a topic of ongoing debate, driven by the rapid evolution of digital communication technologies. While traditional phone numbers (MSISDNs) face challenges and see their role evolve, it's more likely that they will transition to a more specialized function rather than disappearing entirely in the foreseeable future.

Drivers Towards Obsolescence (or Specialization):
Dominance of Internet-Based Communication (VoIP and Messaging Apps):

Rich Communication: Platforms like WhatsApp, Messenger, Telegram, Viber, Zoom, and Google Meet have fundamentally changed how people communicate. They offer rich features such as free voice/video calls over Wi-Fi or data, group chats, multimedia sharing, stickers, and end-to-end encryption. For many, especially younger generations, these apps have become the primary means of personal communication, largely bypassing traditional SMS and voice calls linked to phone numbers.
Global Reach without Roaming: These apps allow seamless international communication without incurring costly international calling or SMS charges, a major advantage over traditional phone calls for travelers or those with international contacts.
Unified Experience: They offer a more integrated experience, combining various communication modes within a single interface.
Shift to App-Centric and Handle-Based Identities:

Users are increasingly identified by usernames, handles (e.g., @username on social media), or email addresses within specific applications or platforms. For direct contact within these ecosystems, a phone number is often not required.
The rise of gaming platforms, virtual worlds, and specialized communities where communication occurs entirely within the platform's confines, using internal identifiers.
Security Vulnerabilities of Phone Numbers:

The inherent vulnerabilities of phone numbers, such as SIM swap fraud, number spoofing, and smishing, make them less ideal for critical authentication. As these threats persist, there's a growing push towards more secure, device-bound authentication methods like passkeys and behavioral biometrics, which reduce reliance on SMS OTPs.
Growth of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and IoT Communication:

Billions of IoT devices are coming online, and most do not need a traditional dialable phone number. They use identifiers like IPv6 addresses, device IDs (e.g., IMEI), or specialized IoT numbering schemes. This signals a future where a vast portion of "connected entities" won't have a human-dialable phone number.
Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs):

As Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs) gain traction, they offer a way to manage digital identity that is self-sovereign, cryptographically secure, and not tied to any central authority or phone number. DIDs could romania phone number list become the primary identifier for authentication and secure communication in various contexts.
Reasons for Persistence (Slowing Obsolescence):
Despite these trends, phone numbers are unlikely to become completely obsolete soon due to several enduring factors:

Ubiquity and Legacy Infrastructure:

Phone numbers are deeply embedded in global telecommunications infrastructure, emergency services (e.g., 999 in Bangladesh), regulatory frameworks, and everyday human habits. Replacing this entire global system would be an enormous, multi-decade undertaking.
A significant portion of the global population, especially in developing regions like Bangladesh, still relies on basic feature phones where traditional calls and SMS are the primary means of communication, and internet access is limited or expensive.
Regulatory and Legal Requirements:

Many countries have regulations that mandate phone numbers for specific services, emergency contact, or KYC (Know Your Customer) processes, linking identity to a verified phone number.
Simplicity and Universality:

Phone numbers are simple, easy to remember, and universally understood across age groups and technological literacy levels. There's no need for an app or internet connection to initiate a basic call or SMS (though actual delivery often depends on network presence).
Baseline Connectivity for Critical Alerts:

Even if rich communication shifts to apps, SMS remains a vital channel for critical alerts (e.g., bank transaction notifications, government warnings, delivery updates) because of its broad reach and low dependency on smartphone apps or continuous data connectivity.
Conclusion: A Hybrid Future
The most probable future is a hybrid one where phone numbers continue to exist, primarily serving as:

A foundational layer for identity verification (e.g., for initial onboarding or recovery for other digital identities).
A reliable fallback for basic communication (voice, SMS) in situations where internet connectivity is poor or unavailable.
The primary identifier for emergency services.
A core element of regulatory and law enforcement frameworks.
Meanwhile, internet-based identifiers and decentralized digital identities will increasingly dominate rich communication, authentication, and machine-to-machine interactions. Phone numbers will evolve from being the sole or primary communication identifier to being one important anchor in a more diverse and layered digital identity and communication ecosystem.
The potential for phone numbers to become obsolete for communication is a topic of increasing debate, driven by rapid advancements in internet-based communication and evolving user behaviors. While a complete disappearance of phone numbers in the near future is unlikely due to their deeply embedded role in global infrastructure, their dominance as the primary mode of personal communication is steadily diminishing.

Drivers of Potential Obsolescence:
Rise of Internet-Based Communication Platforms: The most significant factor is the pervasive adoption of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and Over-the-Top (OTT) messaging applications. Platforms like WhatsApp, Messenger, Telegram, Viber, Zoom, and Google Meet allow users to make voice and video calls, send rich messages (text, photos, videos, documents), and create group chats using only an internet connection. Many people already conduct the majority of their personal communication through these apps, bypassing traditional cellular voice and SMS services entirely. These apps identify users by usernames, email addresses, or internal IDs, rather than directly by a dialable phone number, even if a phone number is used for initial registration.

Shift to App-Centric Communication: Modern communication is increasingly app-centric. Users open a specific application to communicate with specific contacts, rather than relying on a universal dialing pad or SMS app tied to a phone number. This trend is evident in both personal and professional spheres (e.g., Slack, Microsoft Teams for work).

Emergence of New Identifiers:

Email Addresses and Usernames: For many online services, an email address or a unique username (e.g., a gaming handle, a social media ID) serves as the primary identifier, with phone numbers often relegated to recovery or optional authentication.
Decentralized Identifiers (DIDs): Technologies like DIDs, part of the Self-Sovereign Identity (SSI) movement, aim to provide cryptographically verifiable, self-owned identifiers that are not tied to any central authority (like a telecom provider) or a phone number. In a DID-centric future, individuals could communicate and verify their identity using these decentralized identifiers, offering enhanced privacy and security.
IoT Device Identifiers: The massive growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) means billions of devices require connectivity. Most of these devices (sensors, smart appliances, industrial machines) don't need or use traditional phone numbers. Instead, they rely on identifiers like IPv6 addresses, MAC addresses, or dedicated machine identities, further diversifying the numbering landscape away from the MSISDN.
Security Vulnerabilities of Phone Numbers: Phone numbers are susceptible to security threats such as SIM swap fraud, number spoofing, and smishing attacks. These vulnerabilities make SMS-based OTPs (One-Time Passwords) a less reliable method for two-factor authentication (2FA). Newer authentication methods like passkeys and behavioral biometrics offer more robust, phishing-resistant alternatives that reduce reliance on phone numbers for critical security functions.

Reasons for Persistence and Slow Obsolescence:
Despite the forces pushing for change, phone numbers are unlikely to become completely obsolete in the near term for several key reasons:

Ubiquity and Legacy Infrastructure: Phone numbers are deeply embedded in global telecommunications infrastructure, emergency services (e.g., 911, 999 in Bangladesh), regulatory frameworks, and human habit. Migrating away from this universally understood system would be an enormous, costly, and complex undertaking.

Simplicity and Accessibility: Phone numbers are simple to remember, widely understood, and do not require a smartphone or internet access to function (for basic voice calls and SMS on feature phones). This makes them crucial for digital inclusion, especially in developing regions where internet penetration or smartphone ownership may not be universal.

Basic Communication and Critical Alerts: Even if general communication shifts to apps, SMS still serves as a highly reliable channel for critical alerts (e.g., bank transaction notifications, government warnings, delivery updates), which are universally supported across all mobile phones.

Regulatory Requirements: Many existing laws and regulations for identity verification, emergency contact, and service provision are built around the phone number as a primary identifier. Changing these would require significant legislative efforts.

The Likely Future: A Hybrid Landscape
The most probable scenario is a hybrid future where phone numbers coexist with a proliferation of other digital identifiers. For human-to-human personal communication, internet-based apps will continue to grow in dominance. However, phone numbers will remain vital for:

Emergency services.
Basic, universal connectivity, especially for feature phone users.
A fallback or recovery mechanism for various online accounts.
The underlying anchor for advanced identity layers (like verified digital identities) that build on top of the phone number's existing KYC foundation.
While the "dialing a number" for everyday conversation may indeed become a relic of the past, the underlying phone number as a registered identifier and a crucial component of network infrastructure will likely persist for the foreseeable future.