All three do well despite their limitations and shortcomings. Ultimately, they all remain more than 10% off and it is precisely those 15 seats that are at stake in the current Dutch political climate. And there are more similarities: how the analyses are done exactly is often unclear: both social media analyses and the weighting in opinion polls are not transparent. With all these methods, there is a chance that politically interested and highly educated people are overrepresented.
In all these methods, the social factor is also significant. People respond to each other on social media, they respond to the scores on the political stock market and also respond to the results of opinion polls. An echo chamber is created, as it were. This always happens, but at the same time it only makes the predictions more uncertain. Surprising shifts in the electorate are less likely to be noticed due to the lack of diversity of opinions.
Social media analyses have the great advantage that they contain the richest information and opinion israel telegram data polls that they provide the most information about the respondents. But apart from these advantages, all these predictions are highly uncertain because the voter is undecided and often only makes a final choice just before the elections. That is why all these methods are mostly guesswork. The polls therefore seem to play on our need for news and sensation. And we all like to feast on that.